Tuesday, December 17, 2013

why this minority vote bank politics in India.

In first past the post system, where candidate who gets the maximum vote will be the winner in election. so here is the mathematics. say 4 candidate in election (it is generally more than 4). 60% is the average voting turnout and let us assume all 60% is valid vote. let us assume the distribution of votes. In most of cases there is not much difference between the first and second rank candidate. and they together garner 60% of vote. so effectively 36% of all voters' vote goes to top 2 candidates, so the winning candidate could be having anything more than 18% of the vote. Generally as per Election statistics , it turns out that the winning candidate gets around 30-35% of total valid votes, and that amount to total 20 - 24% of all the eligible voters of any constituency. SO if you want to win the seat , approximately one fourth of voters one need to vow, Since minority mainly muslims constitute approx 18 % of voters on all india level, so scar of indian partition and hindu extremism, it is very easy to polarise the muslims votes, it need just few hardline comments, and a few bombs and riots. So on the name of security, politician were able to mobilize the muslims. Minority has a tendency to follow the collective patterns guided by their religious man who were easily politicised by politicians by offering money , post and HAZ dole for them and their relatives. SO thus they are able to secure say 60-80% of muslims votes that constitute the 60-70% of required vote(ie 24-25% of total valid votes). So to get the rest they need to mobilize only 10-15% of majority votes, that can be done easily on caste lines. SO that is why the minority vote bank politics. It is only the issue of perceived threat from hindu extremism, and some appeasement to their religious leaders that do the job.
Why they neglect majority, majority is fractured , they dont have tendency to follow the herd, they ask the question of development, job, corruption etc, which these politicians dont have any guts to ans that.
So i have tried to present this via simple mathematica of election, this is the general norms and fits to most of the election constituency consisting minority (UP, BIHAR, KA, MH,MP, AP, Rajasthan, Kerala, WB, Assam) and these states have more weitage in terms of more num of seats in LS.

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